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What are the optimal strategies for buying and selling matches?

In Luce's Journey, a trading survival game set in the Victorian era, you play as a young child who must trade matches in order to survive.
The player character earns money by trading matches, and matches are also needed to light a fire for warmth while sleeping. If you try to sell matches, the time of day advances (even if the potential buyer refuses the transaction), so knowing when and to whom to sell, as well as the optimal selling prices (percentage of the match shop price), will allow the player character to survive longer.
With survival in mind, what are the optimal strategies for buying and selling matches?
How much should I charge for matches? What is the highest price I can set (as a percentage of the match shop price) at which the NPCs will still agree to buy the matches?
The match shop's prices change on a daily basis. When should I buy matches (at what match shop price) and when should I avoid buying matches?
Which NPCs should I sell or not sell matches to in order to make the most money?
Question from user galacticninja at gaming.stackexchange.com.
Answer:
I'm one of the devs, thank you for your questions!.
How much should I charge for matches? What is the highest price I can set (as a percentage of the match shop price) at which the NPCs will still agree to buy the matches?
There is an exponential formula to calculate the probability of selling that tends to zero with large numbers. Supposing a base price of 2, the maximum would be 99 coins (4950% of the base price) with a success probability of .
Realistically, a good % to sell would be 120-200% depending on how much you can risk failing at that moment, the NPC you are talking to, and the current base price (lower base prices imply that you can aim for higher percentages).
The match shop's prices change on a daily basis. When should I buy matches (at what match shop price) and when should I avoid buying matches?
The min price is 2 and the max price is 8, and it follows a uniform distribution. So a price under 5 is a great price to buy! The best ones would be 2-3 because you can easily buy the matchbox.
Which NPCs should I sell or not sell matches to in order to make the most money?
Check their clothes, which match how much money they have. The best ones are the Milady and the Gentleman. The worst one is the Vagabond.
Answer from user DadeKuma at gaming.stackexchange.com.

In Luce's Journey, a trading survival game set in the Victorian era, you play as a young child who must trade matches in order to survive.
The player character earns money by trading matches, and matches are also needed to light a fire for warmth while sleeping. If you try to sell matches, the time of day advances (even if the potential buyer refuses the transaction), so knowing when and to whom to sell, as well as the optimal selling prices (percentage of the match shop price), will allow the player character to survive longer.
With survival in mind, what are the optimal strategies for buying and selling matches?
How much should I charge for matches? What is the highest price I can set (as a percentage of the match shop price) at which the NPCs will still agree to buy the matches?
The match shop's prices change on a daily basis. When should I buy matches (at what match shop price) and when should I avoid buying matches?
Which NPCs should I sell or not sell matches to in order to make the most money?
Question from user galacticninja at gaming.stackexchange.com.
Answer:
I'm one of the devs, thank you for your questions!.
How much should I charge for matches? What is the highest price I can set (as a percentage of the match shop price) at which the NPCs will still agree to buy the matches?
There is an exponential formula to calculate the probability of selling that tends to zero with large numbers. Supposing a base price of 2, the maximum would be 99 coins (4950% of the base price) with a success probability of .
Realistically, a good % to sell would be 120-200% depending on how much you can risk failing at that moment, the NPC you are talking to, and the current base price (lower base prices imply that you can aim for higher percentages).
The match shop's prices change on a daily basis. When should I buy matches (at what match shop price) and when should I avoid buying matches?
The min price is 2 and the max price is 8, and it follows a uniform distribution. So a price under 5 is a great price to buy! The best ones would be 2-3 because you can easily buy the matchbox.
Which NPCs should I sell or not sell matches to in order to make the most money?
Check their clothes, which match how much money they have. The best ones are the Milady and the Gentleman. The worst one is the Vagabond.
Answer from user DadeKuma at gaming.stackexchange.com.
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